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There are a lot of speculations floating around Washington and the country regarding likely changes in America’s drug-regulation policies during a second term for President Obama. In fact, there’s talk even outside the U.S. boarders on how highly anticipated changes in America’s traditional hard-line, zero-tolerance anti-drug rhetoric may affect international relations. Those following the depth of the international political scene will recall that the U.S. entered into what threatened to be an all-out trade war with our friends and neighbors in the north over their apparent relaxed attitude regarding marijuana regulations and their progressive harm-reduction strategies in major Canadian cities such as Toronto and Vancouver. For many Americans this was a surprise—Canadians having such independent thought on a topic long dominated by America’s political views—and a wake-up message regarding Canada’s potential status as America’s 51st state. Why, isn’t Canada just a little (albeit geographically MUCH larger) U.S.? For those that don’t get out much, they’re even on metric, eh!
Anybody notice how both candidates are ducking the issue of reformed drug laws? Drug regulation or more aptly de-regulation is not a popular topic for anybody in politics, and either party reformulating a new national policy is slated to be the looser. Of course there is a growing grass-roots movement for medicinal marijuana and even decriminalization which would condone modest “recreational” use (presumably for “adults”), but no one running for office seems to be talking about abandoning “America’s (failed?) War on Drugs.” In fact, the Replications have suggested that they will step it up. What exactly does that mean? We invaded Afghanistan and now (i.e., post our military invasion) they’re the number one producer of heroin in the world. Estimates are that up to three-quarters of the entire world’s supply of heroin is coming from that region now ostensibly ‘under U.S. control.’ How much more could the Republications “step it up” (this merits repeating: we invaded Afghanistan militarily and look at the INCREASE in drug trafficking from that region now )?
There are some new players on the block, probably too poorly organized to make a significant impact in this presidential election but growing fast enough to perhaps enter into mid-term reelections and likely players in the NEXT presidential election. I’m referring, of course, to the baby-boomers who are now dealing with the increasing aches and pains of older, sometimes well-worn bodies as they move into their 60’s and beyond. Recent changes in prescribing guidelines for opioid-based medications are placing further, often harsh restrictions on people in need of this important pain-relieving medication. There is even some evidence that some are being driven to the illicit drug market (the very market the new restrictions are designed to better control) to acquire the drugs which help them endure the unrelenting pains of living with increasing medical ills. Eventually, as the numbers grow even larger with aging baby-boomers, this group is going to push back and push back hard. But that’s probably not until another presidential election or two.
One of the first acts of President Obama’s new administration was to issue orders that relaxed enforcement of marijuana laws by federal prosecutors and provided a de facto green light to medical marijuana for states that have passed such laws. The medical marijuana and the decriminalization lobbies (not always the same ultimate goal) both resonated with optimism on the progressive outlook of our new president, one in the new model needed for a New Millennium. According to many reports this wasn’t to last: federal prosecutors began resuming their prosecution of what would be deemed “medical marijuana” cases even in states which had voted legislature recognizing medicinal marijuana—so much for the short-lived progress.
For those who have read this far eagerly awaiting some prognostications, it seems only right to make a few predictions even if on such thin air as to be about as meaningful as those made by high-priced political analysts around the country. During President Obama’s second term in office, he will probably:
There does seem an interesting Supreme Court issue here: what constitutional right does the federal government have to regulate the medical practices of individual states? This is especially perplexing in an era where medical prescriptions are filled next to displays selling copper and magnetic bracelets and various medicinal elixirs reminiscent of the patent medicine era.
So there it is, our “predictions,” or is it our “want list,” things we hope that our President will push once he’s done running for a second term? Yes, he’s likely to want an active post-presidency life and we wish him the best (see below), but he’ll be free soon to really start pushing some agendas that he has his heart in and which he (and hopefully, we too) fully support. Our “want list” is based on what we believe is demanded by the scientific evidence, and our “predictions” are based on our confidence that our President will strive to do ‘the right thing.’
Our list of predictions is sufficiently long as to increase the chances that we'll hit on at least one or two, and then we can use the epidemiologists logic of claiming cause-and-effect post hoc and brag about our influence on national drug-regulation policy. Of course we did slant our "predictions" (AKA "want list") towards a more rational drug-regulation policy and if we really wanted to ensure a few 'predicted' changes under the new administration we would cover both sides predicting a few more stringent measures too.
Anyone who has read through our predictions this far is probably wondering whether we blatantly and shamelessly exploited the name “Obama” and the keywords “presidential election” to receive more traffic on the ASNet Discussion Forum. Yes, we did! But it’s not as self-centered as it may seem. We noticed that our brief comment on Obama’s shift in marijuana policy was getting a lot of hits (surprise, surprise, it must be election time) and decided that we should exploit this opportunity to increase awareness and debate on the important issues outlined above. Do we have any more insight than the next person on President Obama’s likely changes in drug-regulation policies? Of course we don’t, but that doesn’t stop any number of would-be “expert analysts” from capitalizing on the presidential elections to promote their personal and financial interests (e.g., “look at me, I’m a big-time lobbyist,” “I was on national television”). And we sincerely hope that we effectively add another voice or two to a mandate to develop rational drug-regulation policies based on unbiased scientific evidence not begging-the-question science instructed a priori what to “discover” in the course of “scientific” research directed by some hidden agenda.
President Obama is energetic and driven by his youthful idealism. If he can survive the rigors of another 4 years without the stress-induced aging typical of young men leaving the White House as old men (check the hair colors for before and after photographs of Presidents Bush, Clinton, and yes, even Barack after his first term; there’s a definite aging effect of being president), he is most likely to remain visibly active in world politics in some important way. Perhaps like former President Jimmy Carter he will form an institute and take up a specific cause or two, supporting the rights of the disadvantaged and marginalized people around the world. It’s unlikely he’ll rest on his laurels as former President Clinton appears to have done, nor will he retire quietly to a ranch in Texas out of public life as has former President Bush. He has a long life and his youthful zeal and intellect just won’t let him stop. With this in mind, he has to be somewhat conservative in his reform of America’s drug policies and mindful of the retaliatory action of others once he’s lost the power afforded by the Presidency. Therefore, it’s unlike that we’ll see the ‘real’ Barack even after he’s elected to a second term. But then, hey, you never know; he might just take this last opportunity to try to change things from the top down and let the reformed policies ‘rock-n-roll’ into place (metaphor is to ‘going for it,’ pursuing a course of action with zeal, not to implied open season on recreational drugs in America).
For those expecting something other than a pure conjecture op ed, we recommend a recent article from the Huffington Post and offer their analysis of likely upcoming policy changes for a second-term Obama administration.
Despite our President’s popular portrayal as someone who has substantial soft-drug experience and knows how to party well, he’s a responsible parent and above that a very, very bright person. He is likely to temper his youthful experiences with the concern of a parent balanced by a careful, well-thought-out (and hopefully well advised) course of action. We can only hope that his source of “scientific” information is truly credible and not from the usual “zero-tolerance” camp of agency scientists. President Obama knows how to think and work outside the box of usual Washington politics, and we are optimistic that he will apply his talent and skills to addressing America’s drug problem with an intelligent, coherent plan of action after election to a second term in office.
Now Rock the Vote!
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